Record Holiday Travel Forecast: A Look Into 2023

As the holiday season approaches, travel enthusiasts and families alike are preparing for an increase in travel volumes, with AAA estimating that this year will see more travelers than even the pre-pandemic peak of 2019. The period from December 21 to January 1 is anticipated to witness approximately 119.3 million individuals journeying 50 miles or more from their residences. This figure represents a slight uptick of 64,000 travelers over 2019, showcasing a continued trend of rising mobility post-COVID-19.

This year marks not just a return to business as usual but also an expansion in traveler numbers compared to last year’s total, which saw an increase of about three million. It’s worth noting that almost 90 percent, or around 107 million people, are expected to hit the roadways—gently trailing the all-time high set four years ago. Such figures not only reflect a growth in travel confidence but also encapsulate a collective longing for reconnection, family gatherings, and the exploration of new places after years of pandemic-stained isolation.

The Rise in Air Travel: Costs and Choices

Moreover, 2023 is projected to be a landmark year for air travel, with a forecast of 7.85 million air passengers, eclipsing last year’s record of 7.5 million. Despite this uptick in travelers, the cost of air travel has skyrocketed, with domestic flight prices averaging around $830—an increase of 4 percent compared to the previous year. International fares tell an even bleaker story with prices averaging $1,630, reflecting a substantial 13 percent rise. These increased costs may steer some travelers back toward road trips or local destinations, adjusting their budgets as they navigate the changing landscape of holiday travel.

An interesting aspect of this year’s travel trends is the surge in interest towards alternative modes of transport. Approximately 4.47 million travelers are expected to use buses, trains, or cruises, a noticeable rise of 10 percent compared to last year. Impressively, the cruise industry is experiencing a renaissance, with domestic cruise bookings soaring by an incredible 37 percent during this holiday season, suggesting a renewed appetite for nautical adventures.

Top Destinations: Warm Weather Wins

When it comes to destinations, warm weather locations dominate both domestic and international travel choices. Within the U.S., favorites include Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami, alongside urban hotspots like Los Angeles and New York. Internationally, travelers are gravitating towards tropical escapes such as Punta Cana and Cancun, highlighting a prevalent desire to unwind in the sun after a long year.

As Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, stated, „This is the time of year when lifelong memories are made with loved ones, and travel plays a big role in that.” This sentiment resonates deeply as families prioritize experiences over material possessions, reaffirming the value of travel and connection during the holiday season. With both optimism and caution on the horizon, this festive period sets the stage for rekindling connections and creating lasting memories through shared journeys.

Cruise

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